Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS62 KMLB 191032
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
632 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Lake, Orange, Osceola,
  Seminole, Volusia, and Brevard counties between 12 PM and 6 PM
  for peak heat indices of 108 to 110.

- Very warm and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices
  up to 110 and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts continue across
  portions of east central Florida through early next week.

- Rain and lightning storm chances remain below normal through
  this weekend, with chances increasing once again next week as a
  weakening front and high moisture approach from the north.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Today-Tonight...A mid-level ridge situates itself directly overhead
the Florida peninsula today, with the Atlantic high stretching
across central Florida. The ridge axis settles across the peninsula,
resulting in light and variable winds through much of the morning
until the east coast sea breeze develops. As it moves inland, winds
become more easterly at 10 to 15 mph, with little shower and storm
activity forecast. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance of shower and
storm development near and north of the I-4 corridor during the late
afternoon hours as the sea breeze collision occurs, though
confidence in materialization is low. The CAMs continue to be less
than enthusiastic about today`s shower and storm chances, so will
continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as necessary. Any
activity that does happen to develop is forecast to diminish into
the overnight hours, with dry conditions forecast tonight.

Heat continues to be a concern for east central Florida, as minimal
cloud coverage and little to no relief via showers and storms is
anticipated today. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low 90s
along the coast and the mid 90s across the interior, with peak heat
indices reaching 103 to 110 across the area. A Heat Advisory has
been issued for Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Volusia, and
Brevard counties from 12 PM to 6 PM today due to these conditions.
The Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County currently are forecast to
remain just below advisory criteria, though this will be closely
monitored. This level of heat can impact most people spending
extended periods of time outdoors, putting everyone at a greater
risk for heat stress. If spending long durations outside today, be
sure to remain adequately hydrated, take frequent breaks in the
shade or air conditioning, wear lightweight, lightly colored
clothing, and if possible, shift activities away from the peak
heating hours of the day. Little relief is anticipated into the
overnight hours. While temperatures are forecast to remain
seasonable in the low to mid 70s, humidity will keep conditions
muggy through tonight.

Sunday-Monday...The aforementioned mid-level ridge remains in place
across the Florida peninsula through Sunday, and then gradually
shifts westward towards the Gulf into Monday. The surface high
remains stretched across central Florida both days. Conditions on
Sunday are forecast to remain fairly similar to today, with minimal
rain chances areawide except for a 30 percent chance near and north
of the I-4 corridor. By Monday, the shifting mid-level ridge allows
for an increase of moisture at the surface locally, with rain and
storm chances returning to near normal at 40 to 60 percent. Any
storms that manage to develop on Monday may be capable of producing
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
Activity is forecast to diminish into Monday night, with some
lingering convection possible across the local Atlantic waters.

Heat concerns are forecast to persist both Sunday and Monday, with
highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices ranging from 102
to 110. Additional heat advisories cannot be ruled out. Similar to
today, residents and visitors alike will be susceptible to heat
stress and other heat-related illnesses, so proper precautions
should be taken in order to reduce this risk. Adequate hydration,
frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning, and proper
clothing will all be key. Muggy conditions continue into the
overnight hours, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Friday...By Tuesday, the mid-level ridge weakens across the
Gulf, allowing a weakening front to approach Florida. The front is
forecast to stall just north of the area, with the potential for a
low to develop along the boundary and shift westward towards the
Gulf. This is forecast to result in increasing moisture across east
central Florida, with PWATs surging above 2 inches once again. Rain
and storm chances increase through the remainder of the work week,
with PoPs capped at 70 percent through the extended period at this
time. While it is still too early to determine exact storm threats,
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will all be possible
given the current model guidance.

Heat will continue to be a concern through next week, though highs
fall slightly into the upper 80s to low 90s thanks to the greater
rain and storm chances helping to limit daytime heating. However,
conditions remain muggy, with peak heat indices still forecast to
reach 102 to 107 across much of east central Florida. Some areas may
exceed advisory thresholds, but confidence in this does remain lower
this far out. Lows remains seasonable in the low to mid 70s
overnight, with muggy conditions persisting.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

The Atlantic high stays in place across the local waters through
this weekend and weakens slightly into the start of the work week,
with boating conditions forecast to remain generally favorable.
Winds stay below 15 knots through the period, with south to
southwesterly winds picking up out of the east-southeast along the
coast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Seas are expected
to remain between 1 to 3 feet.

Mostly dry conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters
through this weekend, with rain and storm chances returning into the
work week as the Atlantic high weakens and a weakening frontal
boundary stalls just north of the waters. Any storms that develop
may be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess
of 34 knots, and heavy downpours that reduce visibilities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Below normal shower and storm chances today, with VFR conditions
prevailing. Have included VCTS at LEE late in the afternoon, as
the sea breeze collision is forecast to be near that area.
However, coverage is expected to remain low. Dry conditions are
forecast, otherwise. Southeast to east-southeast flow increasing
up to around 10 kts this afternoon behind the sea breeze. Then,
light and variable winds overnight will continue through Sunday
morning, prevailing even as long as through 18Z over the
interior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  94  76 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  96  76  97  77 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  91  76  92  76 /  10   0  10   0
VRB  91  73  93  73 /  10   0  10   0
LEE  94  77  95  77 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  96  76  96  77 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  96  77  97  77 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  91  73  92  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy